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Analysis · GTA Housing Market 1996–2026
The market never corrected — it only paused.
SNLR has not fallen below 0.40 in 20+ years. Not in 2008. Not in 2017. Not in 2022. Every downturn recovered to new highs. This is structural undersupply, not a cycle.
Rate hikes transferred pain — they didn't reduce it.
A buyer at the Mar 2022 peak paid $4,200/mo. After the "correction" in Oct 2022, a buyer paid $4,900/mo — 17% more, at a lower price. The narrative that hikes helped buyers is numerically false.
New supply is being built in the wrong places.
63% of Feb 2026 apartment starts are in suburban York Region. Toronto C01 — vacancy 0.9%, highest rents — has near-zero new units. Supply is geographically inverted relative to demand.
$1.16M
Oct 2022 avg price
+462%
26-year growth
20+ yrs
no sustained buyer's market
42%
of income to rent a 1-bed (2025)
Personal Affordability Tool → View Supply Data →
How to read this dashboard
136K resale transactions (TRREB 1996–2022) · CMHC rental survey (Oct 2025) · Housing starts (Feb 2026) · TFT model retrospective (2023)
Start with Market Overview → Supply & Demand → Decision Tools
Key Finding
Monthly payments rose 17% after 2022 rate hikes — even as prices fell 16%.
For Buyers
The stress test qualifying rate is your real constraint — not the listed mortgage rate. At median Toronto income ($95K household), you qualify for ~$520K at 5.25% stress test. Most GTA communities have medians above $900K. The gap between qualifying price and market price is the true affordability problem.
For Renters
Moving resets your rent to market rate — on average 32.7% above what sitting tenants pay for the same unit. If you are in a rent-controlled unit below market, the financial cost of moving is substantial and should be explicitly modelled before relocating for work or lifestyle reasons.
For Policymakers
Rate policy has a ceiling on its affordability effect: the 2022 hiking cycle reduced prices ~16% while raising monthly carrying costs ~17%. Supply-side intervention near transit corridors — where vacancy is lowest and starts are near zero — is more targeted than greenfield suburban approvals where infrastructure costs are highest.
Long-term price trend TRREB 1996–2022
Did GTA Prices Ever Meaningfully Correct?
Monthly average across all GTA municipalities and home types · Resale transactions only
Apr 2017 Foreign Buyer Tax → -20% correction
Mar 2020 COVID crash → prices surge 58% over 2 years
Mar 2022 Price peak $1.13M → BoC hikes begin Jun 2022 → -16% correction
Source: TRREB MLS via michaelarman/GTA_Housing · Historical data only, ends Oct 2022
Did the 2022 Rate Hikes Help Buyers? The Data Says No.
Price vs. monthly payment, indexed to 100 at Jan 2022 · 20% down · 25-yr amortization
Price −16%
Payments +17%
Average Price (indexed)
Monthly Payment on Jan 2022 home (indexed)
Index = 100 at Jan 2022 · 20% down · 25-yr amortization · BoC rate approximations
Methodology, Limitations & Data Sources
▾
Mortgage Payment Calculations
Standard 25-year amortization, 20% down payment, monthly compounding formula. Does not include CMHC insurance premium (required below 20% down, 2.8–4.0% of insured loan), property tax (~1% annually), maintenance, or closing costs. Prevailing rates in the hero chart are approximated from Bank of Canada overnight rate announcements; actual discounted mortgage rates vary by lender and borrower profile by 50–200 bps.
Price & Transaction Data
TRREB MLS data sourced from michaelarman/GTA_Housing (GitHub, accessed 2023). Covers resale transactions only — excludes new construction, pre-construction assignments, and private sales. "Average price" is arithmetic mean of all reported sales; median price would show lower values with less sensitivity to luxury outliers. Data ends October 2022.
TFT Forecast Model
Temporal Fusion Transformer trained on TRREB 1996–2022 transaction data. Training predates the 2023 market environment: Bank of Canada rate hold at 5.0%, immigration policy changes, condo investor pullback. Forecasts reflect 2022 rate-trajectory expectations. No confidence intervals are published. Treat as directional signal only — not a price target or financial forecast. As of 2026, the 2023 predictions are retrospectively verifiable against actual TRREB data.
Rental & Starts Data
CMHC Rental Market Survey (October 2025) covers purpose-built and condominium rental units in the Toronto CMA. Vacancy rates reflect surveyed units, not total housing stock. Housing starts (February 2026) represent a single monthly snapshot — starts data is seasonally volatile; single months should not be extrapolated to annual trends. Affordability index uses Statistics Canada household income estimates interpolated linearly between census years.
This dashboard is a portfolio analysis project. Nothing here constitutes financial, legal, or investment advice. All findings are based on the data sources noted above and reflect conditions as of the dates specified.
Monthly Sales Volume
Total transactions across GTA
Price by Home Type
Annual average price by property class · toggle types below
Market health indicators · TRREB 1996–2022
Has the GTA Ever Been a Buyer's Market? (SNLR 1996–2022)
Buyers market (<40%) · Balanced (40–60%) · Sellers market (>60%)
Buyers (<40%)
Balanced (40–60%)
Sellers (>60%)
SNLR > 0.6 = strong seller market (upward price pressure) · SNLR < 0.4 = buyer market
How Fast Were Homes Selling? (Months of Inventory)
Lower = faster market, more seller power
Days to Sell — How Hot Was the Market?
Speed of sale — lower = hotter market
Sales vs. New Listings — Where Did Inventory Go?
Gap reveals inventory pressure
Were Buyers Overpaying? (Sold Price ÷ List Price)
>1.0 = bidding wars · <1.0 = negotiating room
Community-level map · Nov 2021–Oct 2022 · hover a region for details
Top 5 Communities
Legend
Market Conditions
SNLR · 65 communities
Rental market snapshot · CMHC Rental Market Survey · October 2025
Vacancy Rate · 2025
3.0%
Toronto CMA purpose-built · up from 2.5% in 2024
Avg 2-Bed Rent · Purpose-Built
$2,046
Per month, Oct 2025 · +3.4% YoY
Avg 2-Bed Rent · Condo
$2,891
41% premium vs purpose-built · vacancy 0.9%
Turnover Rent Premium
32.7%
New tenants pay 33% more than sitting tenants
Rent by bedroom type · Toronto CMA
How Much More Do New Renters Pay vs. Existing Tenants?
Turnover vs non-turnover units, by bedroom type
Condo vs Purpose-Built
Vacancy rate and average 2-bed rent comparison
Vacancy Rate (%)
Purpose-built
3.0%
Condo rental
0.9%
Average 2-Bed Monthly Rent
Purpose-built
$2,046
Condo rental
$2,891
AFFORDABILITY TENSION
The average GTA renter needed 42% of after-tax income to rent a vacant 1-bedroom in 2025. Two-thirds of a minimum wage earner's disposable income goes to a studio. (CMHC 2025)
New Housing Supply · CMHC Feb 2026
Apartment Share
80%+
of all new GTA units
York Region Share
63%
of all apartment starts
Toronto C01 Starts
~0
vacancy 0.9% — no new supply
Single-Detached
↓ Near zero
developer pivot to apartments
Starts by Zone — Feb 2026
Units by dwelling type
CMHC Starts & Completions Survey · Feb 2026
Supply Mix
All new GTA units by dwelling type
New apartments are concentrated in York Region suburbs where demand is softest. Inner Toronto — vacancy under 1% — has near-zero new construction.
Price Outlook · 1996–2022 actual · 2026 estimate · 2027–2032 projection
GTA Average Home Price — Historical & Projected
TRREB 1996–2022 · 2026 CMHC estimate · 2027–2032 at selected growth rate
4.0%
Historical
2026 Est.
2027–2032 Projection
Hist. avg: 6.9%/yr · Conservative: 3% · Base: 4% · Optimistic: 7%
TRREB MLS 1996–2022 · CMHC Q1 2026 · Projections are illustrative, not financial advice
Personal Affordability Engine
Enter your financials — get a data-driven Buy / Wait / Rent verdict for your specific situation.
Your Inputs
$120,000
$50K$300K
$150,000
$20K$500K
$2,000
$500$8,000/mo
5.25%
2%9%
Verdict
—
Adjust inputs to generate your verdict.
Max Purchase Price
—
Qualifies at rate +2% (OSFI stress test)
Monthly Payment
—
Principal + interest
Community SNLR
—
Market competitiveness
Months to 20% Down
—
At your monthly savings rate below
Tool 2 · Rent vs. Buy Break-Even
Inputs
$960,000
5.25%
4.0%
$2,891
Cumulative Cost over 15 Years
Tool 3 · Community Comparison
Compare up to 3 communities side-by-side. Cells are colour-coded relative to the GTA median.